Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2e6c…e09c sports 1000 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,531 (-18%) realized −$4,530 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%508W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day98.5pace
Fees−$324est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$563
other 14% +$777
world 0% −$71
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 399 +2.7% -7.1% 52% 50% -8.8%
≤30d 998 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 50% -9.0%
≤90d 998 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 50% -9.0%
all 998 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 50% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 50% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 45% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 37% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 31% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$4,530
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses508 / 490
Est. fees paid−$324
Open positions4
Markets (closed)998 / 1000
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day98.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 998 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+71%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 51¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $187 +$258 +138%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$29 +83%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 +$2 +114%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $2 +$1 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $8 +$7 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $17 +$9 +55%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $6 −$3 -45%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $22 +$16 +74%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $3 +$1 +36%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $9 +$10 +107%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 +$7 +226%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $6 +$2 +34%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $4 +$1 +27%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 −$1 -13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$4 +77%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $16 +$7 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 +$8 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$6 +146%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 +$3 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $29 −$4 -15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $95 −$8 -8%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $32 +$26 +81%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $13 +$6 +44%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $7 −$4 -47%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $7 +$2 +26%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $13 −$1 -11%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $113 −$94 -84%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $17 +$3 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $29 −$15 -53%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $38 +$18 +47%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $22 +$6 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $152 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $29 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 59¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $36 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 43¢ $11 3h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 64¢ $17 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $2 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $6 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $7 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $5 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 63¢ $4 4h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 24¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $4 6h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 72¢ $3 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 6h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 76¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.14 · official $9.14 (match) · 3500 history records