Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2E 0x2e6c…0119 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,527 (+17%) realized +$1,527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,312per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.1% +11.3% 86% 86% +11.8%
≤30d 7 +23.1% +11.3% 86% 86% +11.8%
≤90d 7 +23.1% +11.3% 86% 86% +11.8%
all 7 +23.1% +11.3% 86% 86% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.3% 86% +11.8%
10% ← realistic here +0.7% 71% +1.1%
15% -9.0% 43% -8.6%
20% -18.0% 14% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$544 vs −$1,100 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,312
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $1,015 +$476 +47%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $1,007 +$301 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $1,111 −$1,100 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $3,829 +$998 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $958 +$378 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $201 +$37 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $1,066 +$1,075 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 100¢ $999 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 100¢ $1,308 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $492 2h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 70¢ $504 2h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Asu Almabayev 100¢ $2,425 2h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Asu Almabayev 91¢ $2,402 2h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 75¢ $1,310 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma SELL Ikram Aliskerov 100¢ $1,337 3h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 77¢ $403 3h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 75¢ $2,015 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $958 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 63¢ $607 4h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 76¢ $604 4h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 74¢ $504 4h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 82¢ $101 4h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $1,015 4h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 49¢ $1,015 4h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 87¢ $100 4h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 50¢ $51 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records