Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e6e…a6b6 crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (592 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141 (-5%) realized −$126 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%20W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day592.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$930
sports 3% +$56
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (592 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -21.7% -29.1% 17% 15% -46.9%
≤30d 121 -21.7% -29.1% 17% 15% -46.9%
≤90d 121 -21.7% -29.1% 17% 15% -46.9%
all 121 -21.7% -29.1% 17% 15% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover592.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 15% -46.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 13% -52.0%
15% -42.1% 13% -56.6%
20% -47.8% 13% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$17 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses20 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day592.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 28¢ 55¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+94%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Under 56¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $47 −$30 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $47 −$20 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$25 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$23 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$55 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$22 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$33 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$8 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$22 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$25 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$160 +1005%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $17 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 25m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $29 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $98 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.75 · official $10.29 (match) · 594 history records