Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e70…50eb weather 1330 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$403 (+5%) realized +$386 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate81%1060W / 255L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$24
14 days−$3
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$247
other 1% +$15
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -13.2% -21.5% 47% 45% -15.5%
≤30d 311 +4.1% -5.8% 73% 46% -5.6%
≤90d 1315 +3.3% -6.5% 81% 48% -6.9%
all 1315 +3.3% -6.5% 81% 48% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 48% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 15% -15.8%
15% -23.6% 3% -23.9%
20% -31.1% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$386
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1060 / 255
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1315 / 1330
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $15 $28 +$12 (+83%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+71%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $18 +$2 (+17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? No 78¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? No 82¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 76¢ 97¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? No 81¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 78¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 76¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? No 81¢ 87¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$4 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$4 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 66¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $11 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $12 30h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $8 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $8 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.18 · official $161.18 (match) · 3500 history records