Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e70…a7c8 crypto 377 markets active 4d ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$126 (-2%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%216W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$107
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$131
finance 1% $0
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -12.3% -20.7% 41% 27% -17.8%
≤30d 104 -15.9% -23.9% 36% 22% -20.1%
≤90d 104 -15.9% -23.9% 36% 22% -20.1%
all 377 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 40% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 40% -10.6%
10% -22.5% 25% -19.2%
15% -30.0% 15% -27.0%
20% -36.9% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses216 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 377
History coverage161d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2158 history records