Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e7a…29f6 world 44 markets active 6h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,984 (-23%) realized −$20,983 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,058per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,304
7 days−$12,344
14 days−$12,345
30 days−$5,318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$12,114
tech 10% −$8,760
politics 0% −$102
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -75.6% -77.9% 0% 0% -52.2%
≤30d 8 -60.5% -64.2% 12% 12% -22.8%
≤90d 35 -61.4% -65.1% 20% 14% -19.7%
all 37 -56.5% -60.7% 22% 16% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 16% -19.7%
10% -64.4% 16% -27.4%
15% -67.9% 14% -34.4%
20% -71.0% 8% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,040) neutral
Persistence
early -67% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,675 vs −$1,228 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$20,983
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)37 / 44
History coverage160d
Avg bet$2,058
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $70 −$34 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $200 −$127 -63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $23,887 −$10,143 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $10,068 +$7,028 +70%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $100 −$79 -79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $5,000 +$4,424 +88%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $11,462 +$618 +5%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $6,967 −$6,966 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $2,987 +$1,220 +41%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $1,794 −$1,794 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 16, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 14 $3,600 −$52 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $2,370 +$70 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 10 $30 +$10 +32%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $19,672 −$13,021 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 10 $22 +$35 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $36 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $70 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $73 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 5¢ $1,000 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $4,153 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $507 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $1,000 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $184 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $247 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $105 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $498 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.26 · official $60.26 (match) · 196 history records