Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2E 0x2e7c…164d sports 1424 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,916 (+7%) realized +$15,987 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%736W / 682L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$2,413est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$963
other 10% +$2,533
weather 0% +$18
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.7% -6.1% 52% 45% -12.6%
≤30d 341 +9.2% -1.2% 51% 43% -5.6%
≤90d 1297 +11.1% +0.6% 52% 41% -6.1%
all 1418 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 41% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 41% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 39% -17.6%
15% -17.7% 36% -25.6%
20% -25.8% 33% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +31% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$138 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$15,987
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses736 / 682
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$2,413
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1418 / 1424
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$164
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Under 48¢ 48¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports - Map 2 Winner Joblife 57¢ 100¢ $40 $70 +$30 (+75%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Walczaki 35¢ 50¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+41%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Hayu Kinoshita 33¢ 45¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+36%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 31¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez Arantxa Rus 35¢ 16¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-54%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner AlQadsiah Esports 45¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports - Map 2 Winner CGN Esports 44¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 295 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $470 +$495 +105%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $298 +$88 +30%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $53 +$36 +67%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $21 −$21 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $47 +$107 +226%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $158 +$142 +90%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $147 −$144 -98%
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $10 +$14 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $382 −$375 -98%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv: O/U 175.5 Jun 21 $106 −$104 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $192 −$187 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $450 −$442 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $416 −$408 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $82 +$110 +134%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $255 +$146 +57%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 20 $254 −$251 -99%
Will Northampton Saints/Leicester Tigers win? Jun 20 $111 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $253 −$249 -98%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bath/Exeter Chiefs win? Jun 20 $83 +$47 +57%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $9 +$14 +158%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Maghreb AS de Fès 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $62 −$61 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $237 −$233 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $94 −$92 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $722 +$673 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $21 +$50 +238%
Will Toulouse win? Jun 19 $82 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $112 −$109 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $259 +$88 +34%
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $45 +$5 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $99 +$117 +119%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $148 +$173 +117%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $8 +$15 +180%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $47 −$20 -42%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $15 +$15 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $209 +$280 +134%
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $47 +$3 +6%
Nottingham Open: Completed Match: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $155 +$163 +105%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $105 −$103 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $163 +$173 +106%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $375 +$48 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $7 12m
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY AlQadsiah Esports 45¢ $40 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CGN Esports 44¢ $31 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Joblife 57¢ $40 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $97 2h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 65¢ $7 21h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 65¢ $123 21h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 65¢ $123 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez BUY Arantxa Rus 35¢ $15 22h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $470 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 33¢ $7 22h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY Enterprise Esports 59¢ $53 25h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY ReThink 38¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY ReThink 38¢ $12 25h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $158 45h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 30¢ $47 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $67 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $80 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $382 2d
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 51¢ $106 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 38¢ $19 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 38¢ $39 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 37¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 37¢ $8 2d
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 11¢ $192 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $450 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $416 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $254 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $253 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.45 · official $200.33 · 3500 history records