Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e80…77c9 politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$2
world 31% −$5
politics 27% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -8.2% -16.9% 33% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 11 -4.0% -13.1% 45% 0% -10.2%
all 33 -4.0% -13.2% 33% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.4%
10% -21.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage258d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $91 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $13 −$5 -35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $24 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $38 +$3 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 22 $42 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 05 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 19 $24 −$2 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $3 −$1 -29%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $22 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 46m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $40 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $40 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $44 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $4 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $37 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $19 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $15 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records