Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2e85…ec0b crypto 1260 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%651W / 611L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$36
14 days+$41
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$67
politics 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 60% -7.3%
≤30d 381 +8.1% -2.2% 47% 47% -8.1%
≤90d 1262 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 48% -10.5%
all 1262 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 48% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 48% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 40% -19.1%
15% -28.7% 39% -26.9%
20% -35.7% 39% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses651 / 611
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1262 / 1260
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1262 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$19 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$19 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$21 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $32 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $32 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $32 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $32 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $32 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $32 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $32 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records