Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e88…c22e sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$391 (-7%) realized −$405 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$218
other 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 87% 7% -13.9%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 87% 7% -13.9%
≤90d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 87% 7% -13.9%
all 15 -6.8% -15.7% 87% 7% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 7% -13.9%
10% -23.7% 7% -22.1%
15% -31.1% 0% -29.6%
20% -37.9% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$275 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized−$405
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Kayla Day 93¢ 96¢ $523 $537 +$14 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Francisca Jorge Jun 23 $493 +$31 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $465 +$28 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $374 +$90 +24%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $349 +$25 +7%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $326 +$24 +7%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $297 +$29 +10%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $280 +$17 +6%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 22 $251 −$251 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $299 −$299 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $272 +$7 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $257 +$16 +6%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $247 +$10 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $273 +$26 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 22 $257 +$16 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $250 +$7 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day BUY Kayla Day 93¢ $524 16m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Francisca Jorge SELL Francisca Jorge 100¢ $524 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Francisca Jorge BUY Francisca Jorge 94¢ $493 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Xinyu Wang 100¢ $493 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 94¢ $465 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston SELL Tyra Caterina Grant 100¢ $465 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 80¢ $374 2h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 100¢ $375 2h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 93¢ $349 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova SELL Gabriela Ruse 100¢ $349 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 93¢ $326 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $297 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $280 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $280 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $272 17h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $272 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $257 21h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva SELL Tommaso Compagnucci 100¢ $257 21h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Tommaso Compagnucci 96¢ $247 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 82¢ $299 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 91¢ $273 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis 100¢ $273 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 94¢ $257 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto SELL Rei Sakamoto 100¢ $257 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Rei Sakamoto 97¢ $250 26h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 83¢ $251 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.84 · official $528.41 · 31 history records