Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e89…205a other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$120
crypto 9% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.4% -5.5% 62% 62% -43.1%
≤30d 8 +4.4% -5.5% 62% 62% -43.1%
≤90d 8 +4.4% -5.5% 62% 62% -43.1%
all 8 +4.4% -5.5% 62% 62% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 62% -43.1%
10% -14.5% 50% -48.5%
15% -22.8% 50% -53.5%
20% -30.4% 38% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$47 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $160 −$103 -64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $39 −$29 -75%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$2 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$7 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $57 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $160 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $39 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $23 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records