Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2e89…9cd6 sports 727 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-9%) realized −$165 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%396W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$45
14 days−$64
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$190
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -32.0% -38.4% 47% 38% -39.7%
≤30d 717 -14.6% -22.8% 55% 48% -18.4%
≤90d 717 -14.6% -22.8% 55% 48% -18.4%
all 717 -14.6% -22.8% 55% 48% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 48% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 36% -26.2%
15% -36.9% 28% -33.3%
20% -43.1% 23% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses396 / 321
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions11
Markets (closed)717 / 727
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Luca Nardi 70¢ 61¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Daniel Altmaier 52¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Botic van de Zandschulp 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Terence Atmane 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Marie Bouzkova 71¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 84¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Zarazua Maria Timofeeva 61¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 59¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Qinwen Zheng 65¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Magdalena Frech 58¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Sinja Kraus 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
ITF Wichita: Nicolas Arseneault vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yexin Ma vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Hiromi Abe Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: JiaYi Wang vs Varvara Panshina Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Valentina Ryser vs Amra Sadikovic Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Kira Pavlova Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Riku Takahata vs Saki Tange Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Nagi Hanatani vs Gaeul Jang Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Leilany Ipunesso vs Karla Popovic Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $1 −$1 -65%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Hanyi Liu Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Stepan Baum vs Dimitris Sakellaridis Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Takuya Kumasaka Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Shintaro Imai Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Shinji Hazawa vs Yuta Kikuchi Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Cattolica: Samuele Pieri vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Alan Magadan vs Hyeon Chung Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Yuto Oki Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Aurora Nosei vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Iva Ivanovic vs Aruzhan Sagandikova Jun 09 $1 +$1 +58%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aurora Corvi vs Ana Victoria Gobbi Monllau Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1 +$1 +108%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $1 +$1 +65%
ITF Zagreb: Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
ITF Zagreb: Briana Szabo vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Eugenia Zozaya Menendez vs Mariana Isabel Higu Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
ITF Hurghada: Elizaveta Rozhkova vs Summer Yardley Jun 09 $1 +$2 +151%
ITF Tokyo: Yuki Mochizuki vs Taisei Ichikawa Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
ITF Hurghada: Ayline Samardzic vs Emma Van Poppel Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Naho Sato Jun 09 $1 +$1 +113%
ITF Tokyo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Remika Ohashi Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Eunhye Lee Jun 09 $1 +$1 +89%
ITF Tokyo: Ran Wakana vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 09 $1 +$1 +85%
ITF Wuning: Chenting Zhu vs Daria Khomutsianskaya Jun 09 $1 $0 +39%
ITF Tokyo: Cherry Kim vs Natsuki Yoshimoto Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
ITF Tokyo: Thasaporn Naklo vs Sae Noguchi Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
ITF Tokyo: Riyo Yoshida vs Kurea Hayasaka Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Sumter: Martina Okalova vs Sahaja Yamalapalli Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 38¢ $1 3m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 57¢ $2 15m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 43¢ $1 30m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 61¢ $1 51m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Magdalena Frech 58¢ $1 53m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 65¢ $1 55m
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 64¢ $2 58m
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 82¢ $1 59m
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 78¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 58¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 91¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 71¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 96¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 92¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 57¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Elizara Yaneva 82¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 71¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 91¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 93¢ $1 3h
ITF Wichita: Nicolas Arseneault vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse BUY Nicolas Arseneault 81¢ $3 4d
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally SELL Emma Navarro 28¢ $0 5d
ITF San Gregorio: Aurora Nosei vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 64¢ $1 5d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Iva Ivanovic vs Aruzhan Sagandikova SELL Iva Ivanovic 99¢ $2 5d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Iva Ivanovic vs Aruzhan Sagandikova BUY Iva Ivanovic 62¢ $1 5d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 99¢ $1 5d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 87¢ $1 5d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aurora Corvi vs Ana Victoria Gobbi Monllau SELL Aurora Corvi 99¢ $1 5d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aurora Corvi vs Ana Victoria Gobbi Monllau BUY Aurora Corvi 88¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally BUY Emma Navarro 78¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.30 · official $15.30 (match) · 1998 history records