Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e8f…6e47 crypto 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-7%) realized −$63 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%65W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days−$116
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$31
crypto 42% −$114
sports 15% −$81
tech 2% −$51
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 56% -17.8%
≤30d 18 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 56% -17.8%
≤90d 128 -7.3% -16.2% 51% 50% -16.9%
all 128 -7.3% -16.2% 51% 50% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 50% -16.9%
10% -24.2% 48% -24.9%
15% -31.5% 46% -32.1%
20% -38.2% 42% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses65 / 63
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage81d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 80¢ 48¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 59¢ 24¢ $99 $41 −$58 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$56 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$29 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $52 +$56 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$45 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $48 +$57 +119%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 12? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 05 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 05 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 01 $170 +$96 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 01 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 01 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 01 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 01 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 01 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 01 $7 +$7 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 01 $9 +$5 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 01 $9 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 01 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 01 $27 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 01 $21 +$30 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 01 $45 +$32 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 01 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 01 $35 −$34 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $49 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $51 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $50 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $51 26h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $50 26h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $50 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $50 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $130 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $52 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $50 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $50 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $50 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $146 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $105 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $50 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.65 · official $101.65 (match) · 217 history records