Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2E 0x2e90…ce0d sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$35 (-5%) realized −$141 · open +$106

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%5W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day3.3pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-35.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-28.4%	-35.3%	42%	42%	-14.9%
≤30d	12	-28.4%	-35.3%	42%	42%	-14.9%
≤90d	12	-28.4%	-35.3%	42%	42%	-14.9%
all	12	-28.4%	-35.3%	42%	42%	-14.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.3%	42%	-14.9%
10%	-41.4%	42%	-23.0%
15%	-47.1%	42%	-30.4%
20%	-52.3%	25%	-37.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late -22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$38 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.86 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$126

Realized−$141

Unrealized+$106

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses5 / 7

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions5

Markets (closed)12 / 17

History coverage7d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day3.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	0¢	81¢	$0	$57	+$57 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Over	0¢	46¢	$0	$35	+$35 (+0%)
Argentina to score first vs. Austria?	Yes	0¢	100¢	$0	$15	+$15 (+0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+24%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?	Yes	5¢	3¢	$10	$7	−$3 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$30	−$30	-100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$18	+$12	+70%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Jun 21	$260	+$134	+51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$59	+$28	+48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$10	+$5	+47%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$33	+$47	+142%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	Jun 20	$27	−$27	-98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$62	−$60	-97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$106	−$105	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina to score first vs. Austria?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$38	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$47	1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	38¢	$10	19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	29¢	$30	20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	58¢	$18	25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	54¢	$15	36h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	37¢	$18	42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$59	43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	41¢	$7	45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	41¢	$8	45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	41¢	$1	45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	41¢	$17	45h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	1¢	$7	47h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	52¢	$20	47h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$62	4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	53¢	$56	4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	BUY Yes	66¢	$260	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.37 · official $125.58 (match) · 30 history records