Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

2E 0x2e93…c103 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$32 (-22%) realized −$36 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-22.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-13.9%	-22.1%	50%	50%	-58.8%
all	2	-13.9%	-22.1%	50%	50%	-58.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.1%	50%	-58.8%
10%	-29.6%	50%	-62.7%
15%	-36.4%	50%	-66.3%
20%	-42.6%	50%	-69.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -54% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$50 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage

Net worth$78

Realized−$36

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions7

Markets (closed)2 / 9

History coverage80d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	17¢	$25	$30	+$6 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$15	$16	+$2 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	11¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-3%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Jun 03	$50	−$50	-100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Apr 05	$18	+$13	+72%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$15	13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	13d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	BUY No	14¢	$50	61d
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	SELL Yes	100¢	$31	72d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	77d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	77d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	77d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	79d
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY Yes	58¢	$18	79d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.50 · official $78.52 (match) · 89 history records