Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e94…20b2 politics 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$470 (-0%) realized −$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate29%36W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$858per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$11
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$60
other 32% +$42
sports 6% −$457
economics 5% −$3
world 4% $0
culture 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -13.3% -21.6% 7% 0% -10.5%
all 126 +0.7% -8.8% 29% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 11% -9.9%
10% -17.6% 11% -18.5%
15% -25.5% 8% -26.4%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,171) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized−$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses36 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage141d
Avg bet$858
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $624 $623 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $287 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $291 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $369 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,117 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,860 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,100 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $457 +$1 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $417 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,204 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,380 −$3 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $2,172 −$3 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,454 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $2,085 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,748 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,211 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,989 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3,207 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,321 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Celtics vs. Rockets Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $291 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $291 6h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $369 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $369 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $221 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $221 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $624 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $515 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $516 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $678 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $679 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $836 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $837 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $707 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $708 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $718 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $719 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $665 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $666 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $726 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $726 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $754 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $755 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $761 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $762 17d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 17d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $753 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.30 · official $623.30 (match) · 397 history records