Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e94…80ff crypto 32 markets active 5d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-8%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$6
crypto 34% −$3
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +22.8% +11.1% 43% 36% -18.7%
≤30d 32 +11.9% +1.2% 44% 31% -20.1%
≤90d 32 +11.9% +1.2% 44% 31% -20.1%
all 32 +11.9% +1.2% 44% 31% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 31% -20.1%
10% -8.5% 28% -27.7%
15% -17.3% 28% -34.7%
20% -25.4% 28% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $12 −$2 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +84%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$4 +371%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $3 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 1¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 9¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 15¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 38¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 13¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 87¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 9¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 33¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 78¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 69¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 15¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 7¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 12¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 80¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Washed 90¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records