Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e95…2bb7 sports 1094 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$733 (-6%) realized −$722 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%488W / 727L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,267
7 days−$1,399
14 days−$1,285
30 days−$1,518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$296
crypto 31% −$366
other 27% −$888
world 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -65.4% -68.7% 11% 11% -67.3%
≤30d 515 -26.7% -33.7% 30% 30% -36.3%
≤90d 1215 -11.6% -20.0% 40% 38% -25.2%
all 1215 -11.6% -20.0% 40% 38% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 38% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 34% -32.4%
15% -34.7% 31% -38.9%
20% -41.1% 27% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$722
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses488 / 727
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1215 / 1094
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 55¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Notts County FC 3 - 3 Salford City FC? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 5.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Exact Score: Notts County FC 2 - 3 Salford City FC? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Exact Score: Notts County FC 1 - 2 Salford City FC? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Exact Score: Notts County FC 0 - 2 Salford City FC? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 19 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$5 -227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$10 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Stars vs. Bruins Jun 19 $9 −$10 -112%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-04-02? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-04-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 Easter Womens Cup: Uganda vs USA Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $56 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $19 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.13 (match) · 3500 history records