Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2e96…a089 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$55 (+7%) realized +$65 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$59
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$87
other 9% +$41
crypto 2% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+59.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.4% -21.6% 62% 50% -4.9%
≤30d 32 +91.1% +72.9% 66% 53% -5.8%
≤90d 40 +76.7% +59.9% 65% 55% -3.6%
all 40 +76.7% +59.9% 65% 55% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.9% 55% -3.6%
10% +44.6% 52% -12.9%
15% +30.6% 48% -21.3%
20% +17.8% 45% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +149% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 45
History coverage38d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Tunisia 80¢ 74¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 59¢ 46¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-22%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 81¢ 75¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 55¢ 59¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $16 +$4 +22%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $28 +$17 +60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$21 +83%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $25 +$40 +158%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $18 +$7 +40%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +59%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 09 $19 +$2 +8%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $3 +$17 +545%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 04 $1 +$19 +2400%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $66 −$66 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$83 +449%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $12 +$3 +28%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 May 31 $45 +$45 +102%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $11 $0 +3%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 29 $8 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $10 +$10 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 27 $24 +$16 +68%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $19 +$11 +59%
1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $3 +$3 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 20 $16 +$16 +101%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $2 +$2 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $7 +$4 +52%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $6 +$9 +152%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 80¢ $40 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 59¢ $25 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $16 7h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 63¢ $13 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $6 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 61¢ $9 8h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 79¢ $20 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $7 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $22 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 49¢ $26 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 21¢ $6 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $12 11d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Spurs 92¢ $19 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $6 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $51 15d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes $0 15d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 16¢ $0 15d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 16¢ $3 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $45 15d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 BUY Yes $1 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $29 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.41 · official $74.41 (match) · 132 history records