trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? | Yes | 35¢ | 36¢ | $36 | $36 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-8%) |
| Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? | Yes | 19¢ | 20¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? | Jun 12 | $9 | −$9 | -96% |
| Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? | Jun 12 | $11 | −$9 | -82% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? | Jun 12 | $12 | −$6 | -48% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | Jun 12 | $23 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on I | Jun 12 | $5 | −$1 | -23% |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$3 | -33% |
| Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$3 | -32% |
| Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? | Jun 12 | $15 | −$3 | -21% |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on I | Jun 12 | $16 | −$5 | -28% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? | Jun 12 | $22 | −$10 | -43% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 12 | $25 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? | Jun 12 | $7 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 12 | $12 | −$3 | -24% |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 11 | $6 | $0 | +8% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 11 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? | Jun 11 | $15 | −$5 | -36% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 11 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on I | Jun 11 | $10 | −$4 | -40% |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut | Jun 11 | $18 | −$14 | -78% |
| Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? | Jun 11 | $15 | +$2 | +14% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? | Jun 10 | $71 | −$13 | -18% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? | Jun 10 | $13 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? | Jun 10 | $23 | −$2 | -9% |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? | Jun 10 | $21 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? | Jun 09 | $24 | +$3 | +12% |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 09 | $10 | −$3 | -30% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 27 | -22.8% | -30.2% | 22% | 7% | -27.5% |
| ≤30d | 27 | -22.8% | -30.2% | 22% | 7% | -27.5% |
| ≤90d | 27 | -22.8% | -30.2% | 22% | 7% | -27.5% |
| all | 27 | -22.8% | -30.2% | 22% | 7% | -27.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -30.2% | 7% | -27.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -36.8% | 0% | -34.4% |
| 15% | -42.9% | 0% | -40.8% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 0% | -46.6% |