Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2E 0x2e97…96ce weather 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$1,166 (+24%) realized +$1,102 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%38W / 50L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day51.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$603
7 days+$1,205
14 days+$1,153
30 days+$1,153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +84.0% +66.5% 57% 43% +22.1%
≤30d 88 +52.7% +38.2% 43% 35% +18.3%
≤90d 88 +52.7% +38.2% 43% 35% +18.3%
all 88 +52.7% +38.2% 43% 35% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.2% 35% +18.3%
10% ← realistic here +24.9% 30% +7.0%
15% +12.9% 26% -3.3%
20% +1.8% 24% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$14 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized+$1,102
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses38 / 50
Open positions4
Markets (closed)88 / 92
History coverage10d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day51.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $573 $628 +$55 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 94¢ 100¢ $373 $396 +$23 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 22? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $10 −$4 -43%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $23 −$10 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 22 $21 +$19 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $97 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $50 −$41 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $417 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 22 $90 +$343 +382%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $58 +$252 +431%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 +$86 +471%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $35 −$19 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 −$9 -44%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $5 +$3 +70%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $41 +$42 +103%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 21 $40 −$23 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 +$22 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $592 +$102 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -85%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 19 $29 −$24 -83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $5 +$7 +127%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $452 +$45 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $88 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $447 +$42 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $265 −$246 -93%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $181 +$562 +310%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$10 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $43 +$63 +145%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $140 −$69 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$24 +457%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $63 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 +$13 +3233%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $39 +$66 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $126 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 90¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 92¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 92¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.09 · official $1,024.09 (match) · 586 history records