Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e9c…3095 other 54 markets active 3d ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+5%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$6
crypto 24% +$4
world 17% +$6
finance 16% +$1
politics 9% −$1
sports 5% +$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -39.7% -45.5% 30% 20% -37.8%
≤30d 27 -1.2% -10.6% 48% 41% -10.7%
≤90d 44 -0.8% -10.2% 45% 41% -6.7%
all 47 +9.1% -1.3% 45% 40% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 40% -5.0%
10% -10.7% 32% -14.1%
15% -19.3% 28% -22.4%
20% -27.3% 21% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage94d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 70¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 $0 -13%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 03 $18 −$6 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $2 +$6 +274%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 +$4 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 23 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $1 +$1 +86%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 +$3 +159%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1 $0 -23%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1 $0 -11%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1 $0 -7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 18 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 07 $2 +$2 +96%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 19 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $1 +$6 +612%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $1 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $2 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.80 · official $37.80 (match) · 134 history records