Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2E 0x2ea1…706a other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$187 (+11%) realized +$167 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$243
14 days+$243
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$76
sports 35% +$166
world 2% −$41
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.6% -19.1% 30% 28% +7.0%
≤30d 47 -10.6% -19.1% 30% 28% +7.0%
≤90d 50 -14.1% -22.3% 28% 26% +0.5%
all 50 -14.1% -22.3% 28% 26% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 26% +0.5%
10% -29.7% 26% -9.1%
15% -36.5% 24% -17.9%
20% -42.7% 22% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$13 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage78d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 76¢ $49 $71 +$22 (+44%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +56%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $35 +$42 +119%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$9 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 −$35 -89%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$34 -67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $138 +$87 +63%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 +$29 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$1 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$2 -11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 −$18 -47%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$19 +47%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$134 +218%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 −$3 -3%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Al Apr 03 $39 −$39 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 03 $42 −$2 -6%
Valorant: Wolves Esports vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omeg Apr 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 1m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $98 5m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $74 6m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 16h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $77 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 19h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 19h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $30 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 20h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 34h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $10 34h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $9 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 41h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.95 · official $169.95 (match) · 137 history records