Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2ea2…6f80
politics · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage326d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -29%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $18 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $62 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jul Aug 10 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 22 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% $0
world 25% $0
other 16% −$1
weather 9% +$1
sports 8% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $26 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $28 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $30 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $31 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $28 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $28 5d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $24 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $8 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $4 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $28 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $35 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $35 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $12 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $19 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $32 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $7 275d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 38 -0.8% -10.3% 32% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.50 · official $30.51 (match) · 100 history records