Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ea3…c619 other 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 136L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$16
sports 24% −$9
politics 23% −$10
economics 8% −$4
crypto 6% +$1
culture 5% −$7
world 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
all 156 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage161d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $410 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $576 −$2 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $244 −$3 -1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 11 $272 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $50 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $569 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $63 $0 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $228 +$1 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 03 $606 +$3 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $59 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 29 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $60 14d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $60 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $54 22d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $54 22d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $60 34d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $60 34d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 61d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 61d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $50 61d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $50 62d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $39 62d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $39 62d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 62d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $57 62d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $56 62d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $56 63d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $38 63d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $38 63d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $50 63d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $50 63d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 63d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 63d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 63d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 64d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $52 64d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $52 64d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $57 64d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $57 64d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.23 · official $58.23 (match) · 691 history records