Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ea6…428a sports 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,924 (-8%) realized −$2,138 · open +$214
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%123W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$378est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$2,049
14 days−$1,966
30 days−$1,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,729
other 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -24.1%
≤30d 245 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -16.8%
≤90d 245 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -16.8%
all 245 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 50% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 48% -24.7%
15% -27.5% 47% -32.0%
20% -34.6% 39% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$98 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$728
Realized−$2,138
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses123 / 122
Est. fees paid−$378
Open positions5
Markets (closed)245 / 250
History coverage13d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Aryna Sabalenka 65¢ 92¢ $143 $200 +$57 (+40%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 52¢ 78¢ $115 $170 +$55 (+48%)
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Alina Charaeva 41¢ 100¢ $64 $156 +$92 (+144%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 56¢ 60¢ $112 $121 +$9 (+8%)
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 61¢ 62¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $50 +$142 +283%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $92 +$70 +76%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $49 +$116 +237%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $59 −$58 -98%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $69 +$41 +59%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $79 −$78 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $96 +$52 +54%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $50 +$42 +84%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $80 −$79 -98%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $41 +$62 +152%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $46 +$67 +145%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $64 −$63 -98%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $238 −$228 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $96 +$79 +82%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $96 −$89 -92%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $46 +$52 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $136 +$51 +38%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $90 +$84 +93%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $84 +$130 +154%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $45 +$68 +152%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $152 −$100 -66%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $72 +$53 +73%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $51 +$25 +49%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $91 +$16 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $107 −$105 -99%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $63 +$25 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $173 −$173 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $159 −$152 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $130 +$103 +79%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $57 −$56 -99%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $50 +$44 +89%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $39 +$70 +180%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $59 +$45 +76%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $50 +$59 +118%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $86 −$85 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $40 +$69 +175%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $23 +$15 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 61¢ $80 4m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $112 25m
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 79¢ $192 29m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 52¢ $116 52m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 41¢ $45 59m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $161 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $100 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 41¢ $65 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku SELL Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $165 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 22¢ $59 1h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 20¢ $50 2h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze SELL Elizara Yaneva 100¢ $110 2h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 33¢ $79 2h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Elizara Yaneva 62¢ $69 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $148 2h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 56¢ $92 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Darja Vidmanova 81¢ $92 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 29¢ $49 3h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 40¢ $80 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 31¢ $43 4h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 39¢ $43 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $112 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Darja Vidmanova 43¢ $50 4h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Michele Ribecai 46¢ $64 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $96 5h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Remy Bertola 28¢ $35 5h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 39¢ $41 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 40¢ $46 6h
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt BUY Dominic Stephan Stricker 52¢ $61 6h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Qatar $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $727.84 · official $729.05 (match) · 422 history records