Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ea7…1095 crypto 1180 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$149 (-6%) realized −$232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%589W / 591L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day61.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$56
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$225
sports 4% −$5
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -2.6% -11.9% 69% 31% -12.9%
≤30d 610 -21.9% -29.3% 48% 31% -22.1%
≤90d 1180 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 33% -19.5%
all 1180 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 33% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 33% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 19% -27.2%
15% -40.5% 11% -34.2%
20% -46.4% 6% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses589 / 591
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1180 / 1180
History coverage54d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day61.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Fujieda MYFC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records