Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2ea9…7927
weather · 188 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$447 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$447 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses121 / 62
Open positions5
Markets (closed)183 / 188
History coverage66d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 5 History 183 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$76
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 78¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 7? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$20 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 −$4 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$9 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$8 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $68 −$30 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 07 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 96% −$424
other 3% −$23
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 15m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 38¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 63¢ $3 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 40¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 5h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 30¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 5h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 5h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 5h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5h
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 5h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $2 5h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $2 5h
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $3 6h
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 11% -16.9%
≤30d 176 -4.1% -13.2% 68% 24% -13.2%
≤90d 183 -6.9% -15.8% 66% 24% -27.8%
all 183 -6.9% -15.8% 66% 24% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 24% -27.8%
10% -23.8% 1% -34.7%
15% -31.2% 1% -41.0%
20% -37.9% 1% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.85 · official $9.90 (match) · 3500 history records