Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eab…ca25 crypto 857 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$473 (-7%) realized −$473 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate75%646W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$559
economics 0% +$1
other 0% +$2
finance 0% −$5
culture 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -2.7% -11.9% 73% 15% -11.9%
≤30d 807 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 21% -13.5%
≤90d 856 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 21% -17.1%
all 857 -3.2% -12.4% 75% 21% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 21% -17.1%
10% -20.8% 2% -25.1%
15% -28.4% 0% -32.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$473
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses646 / 211
Open positions0
Markets (closed)857 / 857
History coverage252d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 857 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1699 history records