Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2E 0x2eac…71d6 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-40%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$70
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$59
crypto 17% −$13
sports 14% −$13
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +324.5% +284.1% 100% 100% +284.1%
≤30d 7 -4.8% -13.9% 29% 29% +71.6%
≤90d 14 -47.8% -52.8% 14% 14% +43.6%
all 14 -47.8% -52.8% 14% 14% +43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.8% 14% +43.6%
10% -57.3% 14% +29.9%
15% -61.4% 14% +17.3%
20% -65.2% 14% +5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -91% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$4 · ×9.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage69d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $21 +$70 +324%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$22 -73%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 21 $5 −$2 -36%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records