Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2E 0x2eac…f094 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$133 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$151
sports 5% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 37% -8.8%
≤30d 19 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 37% -8.8%
≤90d 19 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 37% -8.8%
all 19 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 37% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 37% -8.8%
10% -30.3% 26% -17.6%
15% -37.0% 26% -25.5%
20% -43.2% 16% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -61% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$139 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$133
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $200 $88 −$112 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$136 +134%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$52 +510%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$57 -56%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $202 +$138 +68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,010 +$403 +40%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,999 +$369 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,298 −$1,298 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 14h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $42 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 38h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 39h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,413 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $98 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $37 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,368 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,999 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,000 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $999 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $299 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.66 · official $87.69 (match) · 34 history records