trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -42.9% | -48.4% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -23.5% | -30.8% | 42% | 8% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -17.9% | -25.7% | 53% | 13% | -9.7% |
| all | 25 | -9.0% | -17.7% | 68% | 12% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.7% | 12% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -25.6% | 4% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -32.8% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 0% | -34.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 74¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-21%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET | Jun 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET | Jun 23 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me | Jun 23 | $8,488 | −$12 | -0% |
| Will Solana dip to $20 in June? | Jun 23 | $8,572 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $8,565 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | Jun 22 | $8,593 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 26 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 21? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co | May 26 | $4 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 20 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Apr 20 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 20 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? | Mar 15 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 15 | $3 | +$1 | +33% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Mar 15 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting | Feb 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 10 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? | Feb 10 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jan 17 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 26? | Dec 26 | $7,861 | −$356 | -4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? | Dec 26 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21? | Dec 26 | $1 | $0 | +1% |