Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2E 0x2ead…8046 weather 944 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+1%) realized +$206 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate86%795W / 133L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$70
14 days+$51
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$181
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -3.5% -12.6% 87% 36% -11.6%
≤30d 269 +3.7% -6.2% 92% 44% -7.8%
≤90d 928 -0.9% -10.3% 86% 53% -8.6%
all 928 -0.9% -10.3% 86% 53% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 53% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 18% -17.4%
15% -26.7% 3% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$888
Realized+$206
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses795 / 133
Open positions16
Markets (closed)928 / 944
History coverage65d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 928 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? No 95¢ 100¢ $75 $79 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? No 93¢ 95¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $69 $73 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 88¢ 92¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? No 96¢ 98¢ $67 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 83¢ 80¢ $71 $68 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 93¢ 92¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? No 75¢ 64¢ $68 $57 −$10 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? No 93¢ 98¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C or higher on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? No 92¢ 93¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20? No 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? No 94¢ 100¢ $42 $44 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 19? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 95¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 18 $86 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $76 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $73 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $73 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $33 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $79 +$15 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $78 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $74 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $75 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $76 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$9 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $75 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $81 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $73 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $76 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $36 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $67 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $54 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $73 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $64 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $68 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $74 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $73 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$12 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $76 +$12 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $29 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 14 $70 −$70 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $80 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $67 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $51 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 96¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 96¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 96¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $17 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $35 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $14 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $14 10h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $14 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.61 · official $886.72 (match) · 2203 history records