Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2eae…ac27 crypto 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29,669 (+33%) realized +$29,641 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%135W / 115L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,287
7 days+$10,527
14 days+$12,207
30 days+$18,917
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$23,524
sports 7% +$5,894
other 1% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +17.7% +6.5% 62% 60% +30.0%
≤30d 122 +9.4% -1.1% 57% 56% +21.7%
≤90d 250 +4.3% -5.7% 54% 53% +20.5%
all 250 +4.3% -5.7% 54% 53% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 53% +20.5%
10% -14.7% 52% +9.0%
15% -22.9% 50% -1.6%
20% -30.5% 49% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$192 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$578
Realized+$29,641
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses135 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions2
Markets (closed)250 / 252
History coverage57d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $500 $543 +$43 (+9%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,052 −$1,000 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $754 +$60 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $779 −$750 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$96 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,297 −$1,250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $778 +$825 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1,956 +$684 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,813 +$1,797 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $646 +$1,292 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $515 +$379 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,302 +$1,794 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1,038 +$1,174 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,441 +$1,481 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $784 −$750 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1,990 +$1,635 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1,523 +$1,650 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $155 +$129 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $552 +$538 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $518 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $203 +$143 +71%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $516 +$387 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$104 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $566 +$385 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $155 +$133 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $89 +$129 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $361 +$273 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $312 +$451 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $722 −$700 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $1,248 −$1,200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $1,037 +$1,134 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $206 +$163 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $830 +$546 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $264 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $263 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $263 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $259 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $260 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $260 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $252 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $260 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $260 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $260 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $258 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $258 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1,456 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1,184 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $258 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $262 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.71 · official $577.71 (match) · 986 history records