Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eb3…bf75 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$1
other 23% $0
politics 11% −$2
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 9% -9.4%
all 35 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $13 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $42 +$1 +2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $3 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $99 −$8 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $39 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $45 +$6 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $9 $0 +3%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $1 $0 -10%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $9 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $9 $0 -1%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Mar 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $50 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $45 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $54 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $54 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $25 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.65 · official $41.58 (match) · 127 history records