Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2eb4…59d4 sports 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$391 (-15%) realized −$380 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%58W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$400
other 4% −$5
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +37.0% +23.9% 53% 47% +17.4%
≤30d 19 +37.0% +23.9% 53% 47% +17.4%
≤90d 19 +37.0% +23.9% 53% 47% +17.4%
all 139 -11.1% -19.6% 42% 40% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -23.1%
10% -27.3% 38% -30.5%
15% -34.3% 36% -37.2%
20% -40.7% 29% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$380
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses58 / 81
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)139 / 146
History coverage208d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 59¢ 22¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 56¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 37¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$11 +550%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$8 +158%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qual Jan 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 17 $51 +$37 +72%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Jan 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jan 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Jan 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 15 $40 +$11 +27%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) Jan 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Nuggets Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 12 $2 +$8 +400%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jan 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 12 $5 +$8 +156%
Magic vs. 76ers Jan 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) Jan 10 $9 −$9 -100%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2) Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs OG (BO1) Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO1) Jan 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Tidebound (BO1) Jan 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 29h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $5 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 47h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 47h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 27¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 2d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 43¢ $15 109d
Cavaliers vs. Bucks BUY Cavaliers 22¢ $10 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.67 · official $38.67 (match) · 260 history records