Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eb5…c2ad sports 358 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$91 (-0%) realized −$214 · open +$123
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%161W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$160
14 days−$12
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$369
other 3% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.9% +12.1% 57% 57% +12.6%
≤30d 50 -5.2% -14.2% 42% 42% -12.0%
≤90d 112 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 43% -18.9%
all 353 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 44% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 44% -10.8%
10% -18.5% 43% -19.4%
15% -26.4% 41% -27.2%
20% -33.6% 40% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$52 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses161 / 192
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions5
Markets (closed)353 / 358
History coverage222d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $60 $139 +$79 (+132%)
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 47¢ 64¢ $48 $65 +$17 (+35%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $47 +$55 +119%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $48 +$54 +114%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $48 +$54 +114%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $48 +$54 +114%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $47 +$53 +113%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $44 +$59 +134%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $47 +$55 +119%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $48 +$52 +108%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $48 +$52 +108%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 +$57 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $48 +$52 +108%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $49 +$53 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $46 +$64 +140%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $48 −$47 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $50 +$52 +105%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $47 −$46 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $21 −$21 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $47 −$46 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $47 +$55 +119%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $35 +$68 +197%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $44 −$43 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $43 +$59 +140%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 03 $38 −$38 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $45 +$57 +129%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 31 $51 −$51 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $53 −$52 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $105 +$215 +205%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 29 $51 −$51 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $53 +$57 +109%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $43 −$42 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $46 −$45 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 26 $48 −$46 -96%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $48 +$62 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $49 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $47 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $48 12h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $48 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $48 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $48 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $48 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $39 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $48 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $1 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $32 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $4 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $1 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $2 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $4 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $2 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $49 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $44 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $49 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $47 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $48 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $4 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $18 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $9 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $14 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $2 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $47 8d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $48 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $48 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.77 · official $483.99 · 1253 history records