Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2eb6…31fc sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,509 (-33%) realized −$2,565 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,808
politics 29% +$144
sports 14% −$121
world 9% −$711
finance 1% +$18
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.2% +6.0% 100% 100% +6.0%
≤30d 1 +17.2% +6.0% 100% 100% +6.0%
≤90d 1 +17.2% +6.0% 100% 100% +6.0%
all 39 +6.8% -3.4% 56% 46% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 46% -48.5%
10% -12.6% 36% -53.4%
15% -21.1% 28% -57.9%
20% -28.8% 23% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$184 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized−$2,565
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage191d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? No 85¢ 95¢ $465 $520 +$55 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $492 +$85 +17%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Mar 06 $2,523 −$1,730 -69%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $714 −$711 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Feb 02 $350 +$21 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Jan 19 $690 −$1 -0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 1 Winne Jan 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 15 $676 −$99 -15%
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 202 Jan 15 $142 +$5 +4%
LoL: Dynasty vs The Bandits (BO1) Jan 14 $53 +$2 +4%
LoL: Dragons Esports vs 3BL Esports - Game 1 Winner Jan 14 $43 +$7 +16%
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO1) Jan 13 $69 −$39 -57%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winne Jan 13 $61 +$34 +56%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jan 11 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 11 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 11 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 11 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) Jan 11 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 23 $84 +$46 +54%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Dec 23 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Dec 23 $26 $0 +2%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Dec 23 $18 +$14 +79%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Dec 23 $60 +$8 +13%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 22 $81 +$18 +22%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Dec 22 $28 +$9 +32%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Dec 22 $36 $0 -1%
LoL: Oh My God vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 22 $73 +$41 +56%
LoL: LNG Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 21 $6 +$31 +567%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 20 $13 −$10 -76%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Dec 19 $7 +$3 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Dec 17 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 17 $12 +$12 +104%
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 Winner Dec 17 $6 +$6 +104%
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner Dec 17 $9 +$1 +15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Dec 14 $24 +$36 +150%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Dec 14 $18 +$22 +122%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Dec 14 $16 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) Dec 13 $9 +$4 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $577 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $48 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $269 13d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $42 13d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $275 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $175 13d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $4 15d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $40 19d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $101 20d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $3 30d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $905 51d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $400 107d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 107d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 0¢ $3 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 44¢ $23 113d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 113d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 113d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 70¢ $164 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 70¢ $12 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 70¢ $236 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 70¢ $12 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 70¢ $12 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 70¢ $27 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 72¢ $47 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 72¢ $182 113d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 94¢ $350 148d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY Nongshim Red Force 58¢ $22 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.72 · official $542.72 (match) · 153 history records