Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2E 0x2eb6…5d93 crypto 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+35%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 49L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$94
14 days+$94
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$56
sports 37% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 45% +20.4%
≤30d 95 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 45% +20.4%
≤90d 95 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 45% +20.4%
all 95 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 45% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 45% +20.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 43% +8.9%
15% -38.5% 40% -1.6%
20% -44.5% 35% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $28 +$32 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$43 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$53 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$17 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +145%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 23m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $9 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $28 6h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 36¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 51¢ $8 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.42 · official $8.42 (match) · 161 history records