Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eb8…ada5 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% $0
other 19% $0
crypto 6% $0
finance 5% $0
politics 3% +$11
sports 2% $0
economics 1% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 40 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -8.9%
10% -18.6% 2% -17.6%
15% -26.4% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage486d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $19 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Dec 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Jun 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $2 $0 -1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $14 $0 -1%
Another crypto hack over $1b before April? Mar 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 23? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $2 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $7 +$11 +170%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Feb 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 33m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $19 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $7 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $12 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $43 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $44 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $25 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $9 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $7 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records