Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eb8…0d00 weather 681 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$322 (+1%) realized +$243 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate81%536W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$355
7 days+$138
14 days−$77
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$215
crypto 13% +$303
other 4% −$74
sports 1% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 -7.8% -16.6% 77% 48% -8.5%
≤30d 664 -4.6% -13.7% 81% 49% -9.6%
≤90d 665 -4.4% -13.5% 81% 49% -9.6%
all 665 -4.4% -13.5% 81% 49% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 49% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 22% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 9% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$35 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$995
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses536 / 129
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)665 / 681
History coverage30d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $99 $115 +$16 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 25? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $99 $106 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $74 $81 +$7 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $74 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $49 $66 +$16 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $49 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 25? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$5 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 25? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$24 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? Jun 25 $100 +$29 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? Jun 25 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $75 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $75 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $75 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $75 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 24 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $50 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 24 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Jun 24 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 24 $75 +$25 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $75 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 +$9 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 9m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 14m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 25? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 27m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $50 59m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 92¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $995.17 · official $994.93 (match) · 1995 history records