Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2eb9…c1d9
weather · 506 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,261 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,153 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses481 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)497 / 506
History coverage70d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 8 History 497 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$161
14 days−$303
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Leon Goretzka be in Germany's Starting 11? No 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Felix Nmecha be in Germany's Starting 11? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Jamie Leweling be in Germany's Starting 11? No 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11? No 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Kai Havertz be in Germany's Starting 11? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Waldemar Anton be in Germany's Starting 11? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nick Woltemade be in Germany's Starting 11? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $478 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $478 +$5 +1%
Will Jamal Musiala be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Nadiem Amiri be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pascal Groß be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Baumann be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Maximilian Beier be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Malick Thiaw be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leroy Sané be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Assan Ouédraogo be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Stiller be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Aleksandar Pavlović be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $146 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $308 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $357 +$26 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $377 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $190 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $478 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $356 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $142 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $356 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $308 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $478 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 12 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $478 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $106 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$1,638
sports 1% −$485
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $479 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $478 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $484 1h
Will Leon Goretzka be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Jamal Musiala be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Nick Woltemade be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Jamie Leweling be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Felix Nmecha be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $478 1h
Will Nadiem Amiri be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Pascal Groß be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Oliver Baumann be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Maximilian Beier be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Malick Thiaw be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Waldemar Anton be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Leroy Sané be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Assan Ouédraogo be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Angelo Stiller be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Aleksandar Pavlović be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Kai Havertz be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Pascal Groß be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Waldemar Anton be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 275 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 497 -0.4% -9.8% 97% 2% -8.3%
all 497 -0.4% -9.8% 97% 2% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 2% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 1% -17.1%
15% -26.4% 1% -25.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.05 · official $0.00 · 1571 history records