Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2eb9…7459 world 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,074 (+27%) realized +$1,230 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%29W / 49L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$182
14 days+$182
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$1,034
other 8% +$47
politics 2% −$38
crypto 1% +$13
economics 1% −$15
sports 0% +$9
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +175.1% +148.9% 100% 100% +103.1%
≤30d 3 +130.6% +108.7% 100% 100% +69.4%
≤90d 27 +12.2% +1.5% 44% 44% +9.7%
all 78 -5.4% -14.4% 37% 35% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 35% +26.6%
10% -22.6% 28% +14.5%
15% -30.0% 24% +3.4%
20% -36.9% 21% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$13 · ×4.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$771
Realized+$1,230
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 49
Open positions14
Markets (closed)78 / 92
History coverage705d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $257 $194 −$63 (-25%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $130 $125 −$5 (-4%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $140 $125 −$15 (-11%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $94 $74 −$20 (-21%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $78 $66 −$12 (-15%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $45 $42 −$2 (-6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $35 $23 −$13 (-36%)
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-56%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $116 +$104 +89%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $30 +$78 +261%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $120 +$50 +42%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 08 $148 +$58 +39%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 01 $27 +$84 +312%
Will MrBeast hit 119 billion views by April 30? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30? Apr 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? Apr 25 $181 −$181 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 15 $55 −$53 -96%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $423 −$114 -27%
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 14 $87 +$104 +119%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 12 $50 −$6 -13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $34 +$4 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 08 $50 +$121 +242%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 08 $48 +$152 +314%
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Apr 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? Apr 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel retaliates against Houthis before May? Apr 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 03 $100 +$159 +159%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $750 +$110 +15%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $17 −$1 -5%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 01 $80 +$108 +135%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $100 +$380 +380%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$253 +253%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jan 12 $50 −$8 -15%
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? Mar 19 $5 −$2 -40%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 19 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FO Jan 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mitt Romney endorse Kamala? Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US Government confirms what Mystery Drones are in 2024? Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Con Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netanyahu visit Egypt in 2024? Jan 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Fact Check: Are Mystery Drones a government test? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. government admits they are operating mystery drones? Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
New Jersey mystery drones from foreign country? Jan 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any arrests be made related to Mystery Drones? Jan 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sinwar leave Gaza by October 31? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Jan 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31? Jan 12 $10 +$13 +134%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 23 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 23 $4 −$1 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 1m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 2m
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $42 41m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $210 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 54¢ $108 3h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $12 17h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $0 18h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect BUY Yes 28¢ $29 21h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 21h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $2 21h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $3 22h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 14¢ $14 22h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $80 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $116 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 22h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $45 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $770.76 · official $770.83 (match) · 228 history records