Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2eb9…8d05 sports 319 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,747 (-5%) realized −$1,792 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%109W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$277est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,460
crypto 42% −$4,423
other 1% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -6.0% -14.9% 45% 45% -10.4%
≤30d 316 -31.7% -38.2% 34% 33% -28.0%
≤90d 316 -31.7% -38.2% 34% 33% -28.0%
all 316 -31.7% -38.2% 34% 33% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 33% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -44.1% 30% -34.9%
15% -49.5% 29% -41.2%
20% -54.5% 27% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$70 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$455
Realized−$1,792
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses109 / 207
Est. fees paid−$277
Open positions3
Markets (closed)316 / 319
History coverage26d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 46¢ $162 $160 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage YFP Gaming 38¢ 58¢ $98 $149 +$51 (+52%)
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier FaZe Vegas 58¢ 56¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$66 +66%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $75 +$51 +68%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $102 +$145 +142%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $82 −$81 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$79 +78%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $101 +$58 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $203 +$161 +79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) Jun 17 $72 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $96 −$4 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $187 +$93 +50%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $160 +$107 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $153 +$188 +123%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $191 +$164 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$3 -3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$100 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $153 −$151 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$51 +103%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $171 +$109 +64%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$69 +170%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $160 +$96 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $98 +$86 +88%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $171 −$169 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 +$70 +69%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $78 −$77 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$52 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $219 −$112 -51%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $96 +$62 +65%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$187 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $127 −$125 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $140 +$90 +64%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $80 −$78 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $76 −$75 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$104 +103%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$122 +121%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL M80 100¢ $168 21m
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 60¢ $101 1h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY YFP Gaming 38¢ $100 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 99¢ $125 1h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 SELL Nightblood Gaming 100¢ $247 1h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 41¢ $102 2h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 58¢ $75 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 52¢ $82 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 99¢ $180 5h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 99¢ $160 6h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY FaZe Vegas 58¢ $152 6h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $101 7h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 62¢ $101 7h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $165 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $363 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 32h
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) BUY Brooksby 63¢ $72 32h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL SPARTA 49¢ $92 32h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 50¢ $96 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $280 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $203 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $187 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 99¢ $267 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 59¢ $160 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $101 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $60 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $341 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 43¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $153 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $354 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.21 · official $447.53 · 683 history records