Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eba…6d7e crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-27%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$122
tech 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -47.8% -52.8% 17% 17% -56.4%
≤30d 12 -47.8% -52.8% 17% 17% -56.4%
≤90d 14 -55.3% -59.6% 14% 14% -56.8%
all 14 -55.3% -59.6% 14% 14% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.6% 14% -56.8%
10% -63.4% 14% -60.9%
15% -67.0% 14% -64.7%
20% -70.2% 14% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$16 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage32d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$39 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$26 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $64 −$60 -94%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 17 $1 −$1 -92%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $1 −$1 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $19 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $64 2h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records