Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ebb…0614 politics 390 markets active 1h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,297 (-13%) realized −$6,624 · open −$673
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%197W / 171L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$125
14 days−$1,046
30 days−$1,096
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$5,066
politics 13% −$1,083
other 11% −$806
finance 10% −$474
culture 3% +$198
weather 3% −$73
sports 2% −$188
crypto 0% −$32
tech 0% +$135
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.5% +34.4% 100% 100% +29.4%
≤30d 66 -23.2% -30.5% 44% 42% -41.1%
≤90d 245 +24.1% +12.3% 56% 53% -21.3%
all 368 +13.2% +2.4% 54% 48% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 48% -20.9%
10% -7.4% 37% -28.4%
15% -16.4% 26% -35.3%
20% -24.6% 18% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$102 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized−$6,624
Unrealized−$673
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses197 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions22
Markets (closed)368 / 390
History coverage365d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $60 $89 +$30 (+50%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 58¢ $66 $77 +$11 (+17%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 63¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Yips" in June? No 68¢ 70¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? No 55¢ 80¢ $40 $58 +$18 (+46%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 55¢ $57 $53 −$4 (-7%)
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? No 71¢ 84¢ $43 $50 +$8 (+18%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 28¢ 3¢ $353 $40 −$313 (-89%)
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte by June 30? No 70¢ 59¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-16%)
Will Trump praise Pelé by June 30? No 78¢ 59¢ $37 $28 −$9 (-25%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $107 $25 −$82 (-77%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-8%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $38 $16 −$22 (-57%)
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? No 57¢ 63¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $85 $10 −$75 (-88%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 20¢ 5¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-75%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 40¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+146%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $104 $4 −$100 (-96%)
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $32 $2 −$31 (-95%)
Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $26 $1 −$24 (-95%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $56 $1 −$55 (-99%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 70¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $156 +$38 +24%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $82 +$65 +80%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 17 $52 +$22 +42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 14 $91 −$8 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $27 −$20 -72%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $46 −$43 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Oracle say "Space" during earnings call? Jun 10 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Ques Jun 10 $31 +$24 +79%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 09 $72 −$71 -98%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $143 −$143 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $72 −$72 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 08 $51 −$49 -97%
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 08 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 08 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Trump say "Sucker" this week? Jun 08 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 08 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" this week? Jun 08 $36 +$6 +17%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week? Jun 08 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $7 +$20 +274%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $79 +$92 +116%
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 04 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Trump say "Drug" during Wisconsin events? Jun 04 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 04 $37 −$34 -92%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? Jun 04 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Trump say "Landslide" during Wisconsin events? Jun 04 $60 −$59 -98%
Will "Hillary" or "Clinton" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experie Jun 04 $37 +$13 +36%
Will "Texas" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Will "Love" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will "Different" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 02 $6 −$5 -96%
Will "System" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 15+ times during the Jun 02 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Trump say "Goat" in May? Jun 02 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Trump say "Whale" in May? Jun 02 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Trump say "Deer" in May? Jun 01 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? Jun 01 $47 +$35 +76%
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" in May? Jun 01 $55 +$25 +47%
Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May? Jun 01 $20 +$10 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $75 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $58 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $18 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $194 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 70¢ $148 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $16 8d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $1 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $30 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 69¢ $28 8d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 8d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $83 8d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $9 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $11 8d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $12 8d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 8¢ $12 8d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 8¢ $12 8d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $26 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $51 9d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $156 10d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $28 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $35 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $71 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $38 10d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $37 10d
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.57 · official $675.22 (match) · 1655 history records