Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ebc…62e8 politics 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% $0
other 32% −$1
sports 14% $0
economics 5% $0
world 5% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage118d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $96 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $97 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $98 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $98 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 02 $98 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $96 13h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $96 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $96 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 23d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $71 24d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 24d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 31d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 31d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 38d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $96 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $96 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $96 42d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 46d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $96 47d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $96 49d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $96 50d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 72d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $97 72d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $97 74d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $97 75d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 80d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 81d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 81d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 81d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 81d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 81d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records