Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ebf…d762 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$2
sports 17% −$11
other 4% −$1
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 29 +21.0% +9.4% 28% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 36 +14.9% +3.9% 33% 8% -9.6%
all 42 +10.2% -0.3% 31% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 7% -10.0%
10% -9.8% 7% -18.7%
15% -18.5% 5% -26.5%
20% -26.5% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage490d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $40 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $14 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $39 −$2 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $37 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $4 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $113 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $108 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $11 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $23 +$15 +66%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $27 −$7 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $749 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $235 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $7 −$3 -50%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 22 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $219 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $220 $0 +0%
UCF vs. Oklahoma State Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $42 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $39 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $40 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $22 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $9 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $30 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records