Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2ec0…aaa9 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 498d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%41W / 8L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$1
other 24% $0
tech 8% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 49 +0.3% -9.3% 84% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.53 per $1 lost it wins $5.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

498d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses41 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage498d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $17 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 08 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $15 $0 +1%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Feb 19 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 30d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 62d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 92d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $46 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $34 151d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $41 183d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $17 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $25 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $17 241d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $27 242d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 273d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $4 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 302d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $41 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 334d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $29 334d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.25 · official $48.25 (match) · 113 history records