Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2ec2…6d27 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$381 (+20%) realized +$396 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$473
other 32% −$80
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +45.6% +31.8% 55% 55% +14.3%
≤30d 42 +45.6% +31.8% 55% 55% +14.3%
≤90d 42 +45.6% +31.8% 55% 55% +14.3%
all 42 +45.6% +31.8% 55% 55% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.8% 55% +14.3%
10% +19.2% 55% +3.4%
15% +7.6% 50% -6.6%
20% -2.9% 48% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$23 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized+$396
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $216 $198 −$18 (-8%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 69¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 92¢ $45 $57 +$12 (+27%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$44 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 +$41 +74%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$93 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$9 -23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$20 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$21 +38%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$2 -7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 +$54 +89%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $76 −$65 -85%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$19 +76%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 +$25 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$21 +140%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$84 +328%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$30 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$14 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$33 +324%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $46 +$54 +118%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$9 -42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $76 −$42 -55%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $24 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $45 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $71 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 43¢ $31 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $15 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $56 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $25 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $56 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $23 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 56¢ $20 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $35 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $25 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $45 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $56 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $60 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 60¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.47 · official $367.65 (match) · 98 history records